U.S Presidential Election Status September 26th, 2012
Updated from September 24th! National Polls are less predictive of presidential elections because the U.S. uses an electoral college system. The RealPolitics projected delegate count has changed from June when the estimated number of delegates for the President was 221. The President is now projected to have
247. In August he was at 240. The number of toss up delegates has dropped from 147 to 100 and Romney’s delegate count was increased from 170 to 191 but hasn’t moved since August. The winner requires 271 delegates. The majority of toss up delegates that remain are in Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado and Florida. The state of Missouri and Arizona have moved into Romney’s column. Wisconsin, and Michigan have moved into the President’s column.
Intrade Odds have moved in the President’s favor to a
72.2%chance for his victory. The Five Thirty Eight blog gives the President a 77.7%chance of winning. Polls show slight leads for the President in all of the toss-up states except for North Carolina.
Recent Campaign Themes
Back in June, the President stated he did not believe he could keep up with Romney’s donations. However, new reports indicate that he has.
As it was in June, the Democrats have been focusing on the Hispanic vote in key swing states such as Florida. However, recently Romney has also directed his campaign toward Hispanics.
The Democratic campaign’s focus has switched from arguing that Romney outsourced jobs as a businessman, to issues relating to his 47% comments. In June, Republican’s were focusing on the Fast and Furious scandal and they held the Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt for not providing some records relating to the scandal to Congress. Although the Justice Department’s Inspector General cleared Holder, fourteen agents were not cleared and the controversy has continued. A Mexican investigation is ongoing.
Currently, Republicans are hammering away at President’s Obama’s handling of the burning of the Libyan embassy and other foreign policy issues. However, the Romney video continues to be the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats .
by Todd Miller
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