U.S Presidential Election Status October 21st, 2012
Section: Spin News
National Polls are less predictive of presidential elections because the U.S. uses an electoral college system. The winner requires 271 delegates. The RealPolitics no toss-up map projects a vary narrow President Obama win of 277-261 which is a significant decrement from September. However, the polls are so close in many states that anything is possible. Another reliable statistic is the Intratrade odds. This statistic gives the President a 61% chance of winning the election. The Wall Street Journal 538 blog gives the President a 68% chance of winning.
The momentum was with Romney. However, things have solidified in the past week. There are a number of states that are too close to call including Colorado, Virginia and Iowa.
The latest pole in Arizona, a Republican stronghold, had the President up by 2%. However, prior polls had Romney leading by as much as nine. The difference is that the most recent poll was given in most Spanish and English. This suggests the Hispanic vote may play a crucial role in many races.
The President has narrow leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada and Michigan. Mr. Romney has a narrow lead in Florida.
The Democrats are also favored to win the Senate and the Republicans should hold the House. However, many elections are very close. The Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren race is virtually tied as are Senate races in Arizona, Wisconsin, Virginia and Montana.
Close House races include llinois’ 12th – Plummer vs. Enyart, 13th – Davis vs. Gilland and 10th Districts – Dold vs. Schneider. Florida 18th District with Controversial Republican Allen West vs. Patrick Murphy is close. In Michigan’s 1st District – Benishek vs. McDowell is a close race. In Utah’s 4th Congressional District, Mia Love® has a six point lead over Jim Matheson (D). Reliable polls are not available for many other close contests.
Recent Campaign Themes
The President’s theme has centered on Romney’s business experience as an outsourcer who doesn’t create jobs who is attempting to deceive the American public. Sensata and the Twitter hit Romnesia are examples of his campaign strategy.
Romney has attempted to convince Americans that his business experience will allow him to cut taxes and create jobs while claiming the President is incapable. However, he hasn’t explained his budget adequately and his debate style has been to exceptionally misleading.
Only two weeks until it’s time to vote!
by Todd Miller
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